40th Canadian federal election

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40th Canadian general election
Election date: Writs issued:
On or before
October 19, 2009
TBD
Campaign period: Seats contested:
TBD 308
 
Incumbent:
Conservative minority
Result:
TBD
 
Registered parties:
Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party
Bloc Québécois
Canadian Action Party
Christian Heritage Party of Canada
Communist Party of Canada
Conservative Party of Canada
First Peoples National Party
Green Party of Canada
Liberal Party of Canada
Libertarian Party of Canada
Marijuana Party of Canada
Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada
neorhino.ca
New Democratic Party
People's Political Power of Canada
Progressive Canadian Party
Western Block Party
 
Elections Canada Website
Canadian general elections
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Barring war, insurrection, or an earlier dissolution the 40th Canadian federal election will be held October 19, 2009, in accordance with the provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which were amended in the 1st Session of the 39th Parliament. In the past, the Prime Minister could select an election date of his or her choosing, usually at the four-year mark or when he or she believed that his or her party had the best chance of winning the election. However, in 2007 the Parliament of Canada passed a law fixing federal election dates every four years and scheduling the next election date as October 19, 2009. As the current parliament is led by a minority government, it is possible that an election will occur sooner, as the opposition parties can still bring down the government on a vote of confidence.

More than 65% of all eligible voters cast ballots in the 39th Canadian general election. The Conservative Party received the most votes, with 36% of the vote and 124 seats (now 126). The Liberal Party won 103 seats (now 96), taking 30% of the vote. The Bloc Québécois lost three seats, lowering its total to 51 seats (now 49), with 10.5% of the vote. The New Democratic Party retained its seats held at the dissolution of Parliament, and won 11 more, making its total 29 seats (now 30), with 17.5% of the vote. The Green Party received 4.5% of the vote, a minimal increase from the previous election, but did not win any seats. Independents and other parties constituted 1% of the total vote.

Since the election David Emerson and Wajid Khan, who were both elected as Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs), have joined the Conservative Party, while Garth Turner, elected as a Conservative, was expelled from the Conservative caucus. Turner initially sat as an independent, but then joined the Liberal caucus on February 6, 2007. Joe Comuzzi, also elected as a Liberal, was expelled from the Liberal Caucus for supporting the Budget in 2007. [1] Joe Comuzzi has since joined the Conservative Party of Canada. There were also by-elections in Repentigny and London North Centre after the death of Benoît Sauvageau and resignation of Joe Fontana. Both by-elections reelected a member from the incumbent party.

Canadians' next chance to go to the polls will be Canada's 40th federal election. Harper's government could formally last until late 2009, although an election may be triggered in 2008 if the government falls on a motion of confidence.

The parliament preceding this election is led by the smallest minority ever in the Canadian House of Commons — a government with just 40.6% of the seats — and led by the Conservative Party of Canada. Although the average length of a minority parliament in Canada is 1 year, 5 months and 22 days, minorities led by the former Progressive Conservative Party tended to be much shorter: the longest previous Conservative minority was just 6 months and 19 days. [2] The 39th Parliament became Canada's longest serving Conservative minority on October 24, 2006.

On May 30, 2006, the Conservatives tabled Bill C-16 which would amend the Canada Elections Act which would provide for fixed elections. The bill states that there will be an election in 2009, and it would be the first to have a fixed election date, the third Monday in October (October 19, 2009). However, the House may still fall before then, and there may be an election still in 2008. The bill has finished the legislative process in the Commons and is currently (as of December 2006) in the Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee of the Senate.

It was rumoured by political pundits that Harper would like to have an election in early 2007 in hopes of attaining a majority of the Commons seats. However, it was also speculated that he would hold off calling an election until after Quebec held its provincial election, so as to measure the strength of federalist feelings in that province.

On February 15, 2007, the Globe and Mail reported that the Conservatives were preparing for an election expected to be called shortly after the 2007 budget, due on March 19. Part of the reason for the timing of the election was given as strengthening Conservative poll numbers coupled with the desire to take advantage of the perception that Harper has "better leadership qualities than Liberal counterpart Stéphane Dion". [3]

On March 17, 2007, an internal Conservative Party memo was leaked to the Canadian Press, telling members that they "need to be ready to campaign within the next week." The memo asked members to donate $75 to $150 to help to fund the early stages of the election campaign.

[discuss] – [edit]
Summary of the 40th Canadian House of Commons election results
Party Party leader Candidates[23] Seats Popular vote
2006 Current 40th Change # % Change
     Conservative Party of Canada Stephen Harper 241 (as of December 22, 2007) 124 125
     Liberal Party of Canada Stéphane Dion 149 (as of December 14, 2007) 103 95
     Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 39 (as of December 22, 2007) 51 49
     New Democratic Party Jack Layton 67 (as of December 22, 2007) 29 30
     Green Party of Canada Elizabeth May 77 (as of December 22, 2007)
     Christian Heritage Party of Canada Ron Gray 14 (as of December 14, 2007)
     Progressive Canadian Party Sinclair M. Stevens
     Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist) Sandra L. Smith
     Marijuana Party of Canada Blair Longley
     Canadian Action Party Connie Fogal 31 (as of December 20, 2007)
     Communist Party of Canada Miguel Figueroa
     Libertarian Party of Canada Jean-Serge Brisson
     First Peoples National Party of Canada Barbara Wardlaw
     Western Block Party Doug Christie
     Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party Liz White
     People's Political Power Roger Poisson
     Neorhino.ca Richelle Cloutier
     Work Less Party Conrad Schmidt
     Newfoundland and Labrador First Party Thomas V. Hickey
     Independents and no affiliation 1 5
     Vacant 4  
Total 308 308
Source: Elections Canada

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 30 seats in which they came closest to winning but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.

Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election).

Conservative Liberal
  1. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK (Lib) 0.3%*
  2. Brant, ON (Lib) 0.9%
  3. West Nova, NS (Lib) 1.1%
  4. Vancouver Island North, BC (NDP) 1.1%
  5. Oakville, ON (Lib) 1.3%
  6. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC (Lib) 1.5%
  7. London West, ON (Lib) 2.2%
  8. Madawaska—Restigouche, NB (Lib) 2.4%
  9. Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 3.6%
  10. Saint Boniface, MB (Lib) 3.6%
  11. Saint John, NB (Lib) 3.6%
  12. Mississauga South, ON (Lib) 4.1%
  13. Richmond, BC (Lib) 4.1%
  14. Random—Burin—St. George's, NL (Lib) 4.7%
  15. Kenora, ON (Lib) 5.5%
  1. Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON (Con) <0.1%
  2. Winnipeg South, MB (Con) 0.3%
  3. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON (Con) 0.4%
  4. Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Con) 0.9%
  5. St. Catharines, ON (Con) 1.1%
  6. Ahuntsic, QC (BQ) 1.7%
  7. Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Con) 1.9%
  8. London—Fanshawe, ON (NDP) 1.9%
  9. Ottawa—Orléans, ON (Con) 2.0%
  10. Simcoe North, ON (Con) 2.0%
  11. Brossard—La Prairie, QC (BQ) 2.2%
  12. Papineau, QC (BQ) 2.2%
  13. Burnaby—Douglas, BC (NDP) 2.6%
  14. Barrie, ON (Con) 2.7%
  15. Kitchener—Conestoga, ON (Con) 2.7%
Bloc Québécois New Democratic
  1. Louis-Hébert, QC (Con) 0.4%
  2. Beauport—Limoilou, QC (Con) 1.6%
  3. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, QC (Con) 2.7%
  4. Hull—Aylmer, QC (Lib) 3.3%
  5. Honoré-Mercier, QC (Lib) 3.8%
  6. Pontiac, QC (Con) 5.0%
  7. Laval—Les Îles, QC (Lib) 6.1%
  8. Outremont, QC (Lib) 6.3%
  9. Bourassa, QC (Lib) 11.4%
  10. Jonquière—Alma, QC (Con) 12.8%
  11. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, QC (Ind) 13.9%
  1. Thunder Bay—Superior North, ON (Lib) 1.0%
  2. Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 1.6%
  3. Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON (Lib) 1.7%
  4. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, ON (Lib) 3.7%
  5. Nickel Belt, ON (Lib) 4.6%*
  6. Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 4.6%
  7. Welland, ON (Lib) 4.8%
  8. Oshawa, ON (Con) 5.2%
  9. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission, BC (Con) 5.2%
  10. Beaches—East York, ON (Lib) 5.4%
  11. Kenora, ON (Lib) 5.7%
  12. Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK (Con) 6.5%
  13. Central Nova, NS (Con) 7.8%
  14. South Shore—St. Margaret's, NS (Con) 8.3%
  15. Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Con) 8.3%
Lawn signs for all the major candidates decorate an intersection during the London North Centre by-election
Lawn signs for all the major candidates decorate an intersection during the London North Centre by-election

  1. Tony Clement, Health and Federal Economic Initiaitve for Northern Ontario: 0.1% over Lib in Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON
  2. Lawrence Cannon, Transport, Infrastructure and Communities: 5.0% over BQ in Pontiac, QC
  3. Jim Flaherty, Finance: 5.7% over Lib in Whitby—Oshawa, ON
  4. Rob Nicholson, Justice: 5.9% over Lib in Niagara Falls, ON
  5. Carol Skelton, Revenue: 6.5% over NDP in Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK
  6. Peter MacKay, Defence and Atlantic Opportunities: 7.8% over NDP in Central Nova, NS
  7. John Baird, Environment: 9.0% over Lib in Ottawa West—Nepean, ON

Chart showing all polls conducted from the 2006 election up to July 2007
Chart showing all polls conducted from the 2006 election up to July 2007


The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.

Polling Firm Last Date of Polling Link Conservative Liberal New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green
Harris-Decima December 17, 2007

HTML

30 32 15 - 12
Angus Reid Strategies December 14, 2007

HTML

33 28 17 10 10
Strategic Counsel December 9, 2007

PDF

32 29 16 10 13
Ipsos-Reid December 6, 2007

HTML

35 29 16 10 9
Harris-Decima December 2, 2007

HTML

36 28 17 - 11
Ipsos-Reid November 22, 2007

HTML

39 29 15 8 8
Harris-Decima November 19, 2007

PDF

36 28 17 8 9
Strategic Counsel November 13, 2007

PDF

34 31 16 11 8
Harris-Decima November 12, 2007

HTML

33 29 17 8 12
Strategic Counsel November 11, 2007

PDF

32 32 12 11 13
SES Research November 08, 2007

PDF

35 34 17 9 6
Ipsos-Reid November 08, 2007

HTML

42 28 15 8 7
Ipsos-Reid November 01, 2007

HTML

39 28 13 12 7
Harris-Decima October 29, 2007

HTML

33 29 17 9 10
Ipsos-Reid October 25, 2007

HTML

39 27 17 9 8
Unimarketing October 18, 2007

HTML

36 25 19 10 9
Ipsos-Reid October 18, 2007

HTML

40 27 14 9 8
Angus Reid Strategies October 17, 2007

HTML

34 29 17 9 9
Environics October 14, 2007

HTML

33 29 19 8 11
Strategic Counsel October 14, 2007

HTML

34 29 15 10 12
Ipsos-Reid October 13, 2007

HTML

40 28 16 8 7
Harris-Decima October 9, 2007

HTML

35 28 17 8 10
Harris-Decima October 3, 2007

HTML

33 31 16 7 10
Harris-Decima September 18, 2007

HTML

32 29 17 5 14
Angus Reid Strategies August 23, 2007

HTML

33 29 19 9 9
SES Research August 14, 2007

PDF

36 33 13 10 8
Strategic Counsel August 12, 2007

PDF

33 33 17 10 8
Ipsos-Reid July 27, 2007

HTML

34 32 17 8 8
Angus Reid Strategies July 18, 2007

PDF

33 28 19 9 8
Strategic Counsel July 15, 2007

HTML

31 31 17 10 10
Environics June 30, 2007

HTML

37 28 17 7 11
Angus Reid Strategies June 18, 2007

PDF

34 27 19 10 8
Decima June 11, 2007

HTML

29 32 18 9 9
Ipsos Reid May 31, 2007

HTML

34 31 16 10 9
Leger Marketing May 27, 2007

PDF

37 30 14 8 9
Ipsos Reid May 24, 2007

HTML

37 31 16 7 9
Angus Reid Strategies May 23, 2007

HTML

35 28 18 9 9
Decima May 20, 2007

HTML

33 31 17 8 10
Strategic Counsel May 17, 2007

HTML

34 31 16 10 9
Ipsos Reid May 17, 2007

HTML

36 32 14 9 7
Ipsos Reid May 10, 2007

HTML

31 32 17 9 9
SES Research May 3, 2007

HTML

32 33 17 9 10
Ipsos Reid May 3, 2007

HTML

35 34 14 9 7
Decima April 29, 2007

HTML

30 31 15 9 13
Ipsos Reid April 26, 2007

HTML

38 31 14 8 8
Strategic Counsel April 24, 2007

PDF

36 30 13 9 12
Decima Research April 21, 2007

HTML

30 29 18 8 11
Ipsos Reid April 19, 2007

HTML

39 29 16 9 7
Decima Research April 15, 2007

HTML

34 31 15 7 11
Ipsos Reid April 12, 2007

HTML

38 32 14 8 8
SES Research April 5, 2007

PDF

36 33 16 10 6
Decima Research April 5, 2007

HTML

39 30 13 8 8
Environics April 3, 2007

HTML

36 28 16 8 12
Ipsos Reid March 28, 2007

HTML

36 31 15 8 9
Angus Reid Strategies March 28, 2007

pdf

39 22 17 10 11
Decima Research March 25, 2007

HTML

35 31 13 8 10
Léger Marketing March 25, 2007

HTML

41 27 14 9 6
Ipsos-Reid March 22, 2007

HTML

40 29 14 9 7
Strategic Counsel March 21, 2007

HTML

39 31 13 8 9
Ipsos-Reid March 15, 2007

HTML

36 34 12 9 8
Strategic Counsel March 13, 2007

HTML

36 31 15 9 10
Angus Reid Strategies March 07, 2007

HTML

38 28 15 10 8
Decima Research March 04, 2007

HTML

35 29 15 7 11
Ipsos-Reid March 03, 2007

HTML

36 32 15 8 8
Angus Reid Strategies February 27, 2007

HTML

40 26 15 10 8
Decima Research February 26, 2007

HTML

36 27 13 8 13
Ipsos-Reid February 24, 2007

HTML

36 34 13 9 8
Decima Research February 18, 2007

HTML

32 30 15 9 11
Strategic Counsel February 18, 2007

HTML

34 29 14 11 12
Decima Research February 12, 2007

HTML

32 33 15 9 8
SES Research February 8, 2007

PDF

33 33 17 10 7
Léger Marketing February 4, 2007

PDF

38 31 14 8 7
Decima Research January 22, 2007

HTML

32 33 13 13 9
Léger Marketing January 21, 2007

HTML

35 32 13 8 9
Ipsos-Reid January 18, 2007

HTML

33 37 13 - -
Decima Research January 15, 2007

HTML

32 33 13 10 9
Strategic Counsel January 14, 2007

HTML

31 35 15 11 8
Environics December 30, 2006

HTML

34 32 14 8 11
Decima Research December 30, 2006

HTML

34 31 15 10 8
Ipsos-Reid December 14, 2006

HTML

34 36 13 10 5
Decima Research December 13, 2006

HTML

32 35 12 11 7
EKOS December 9, 2006

HTML

33 40 10 9 8
Ipsos-Reid December 7, 2006

HTML

32 38 13 11 5
Decima Research December 3, 2006 PDF 31 35 12 10 11
Strategic Counsel December 3, 2006 HTML 31 37 14 11 7
Léger Marketing November 26, 2006

HTML

34 32 15 10 6
Decima Research November 13, 2006 HTML 31 33 15 10 10
SES Research November 09, 2006 PDF 34 32 16 13 5
Environics November 06, 2006 HTML 33 32 19 9 5
Decima Research November 05, 2006 HTML 31 28 18 10 9
Ipsos-Reid November 02, 2006 HTML 37 29 19 9 5
Decima Research October 16, 2006

HTML

32 30 15 11 10
Strategic Counsel October 15, 2006 HTML 32 32 17 11 9
EKOS October 12, 2006

HTML

36 31.7 16.2 9.9 6.2
Environics October 12, 2006 37 28 18 9 7
Strategic Counsel September 17, 2006

HTML

35 26 19 12 8
EKOS September 14, 2006

PDF

38.7 28.8 17.0 8.4 7.0
Decima Research September 4, 2006 34 30 14 11 10
Decima Research August 28, 2006

PDF

33 28 19 10 8
Ipsos-Reid August 24, 2006 38 29 17 10 5
SES Research August 23, 2006 PDF 36 30 18 11 5
Decima Research August 13, 2006 PDF 36 29 15 10 7
Decima Research July 31, 2006 PDF 32 31 16 11 8
Strategic Counsel July 30, 2006 HTML 38 29 15 11 8
Ipsos-Reid July 27, 2006 HTML 39 27 17 10 7
Decima Research
Without Greens Surveyed
With Greens Surveyed
July 23, 2006 HTML
36
36
36
30
30
29
17
19
16
-
11
10
-
-
8
Strategic Counsel July 16, 2006 HTML 37 26 18 11 8
Environics June 23, 2006 HTML 39 25 21 9 4
Decima Research June 18, 2006 HTML 38 28 19 10 -
Strategic Counsel June 8, 2006 PDF 36 27 19 9 9
Decima Research May 28, 2006 PDF 38 29 21 8 -
Ipsos-Reid May 18, 2006 HTML 43 25 15 9 5
SES Research May 9, 2006 PDF 38 28 19 9 6
Strategic Counsel May 3, 2006 HTML 35 31 16 10 9
Decima Research April 23, 2006 HTML 41 26 19 10 -
Strategic Counsel April 09, 2006 HTML 39 29 14 11 5
Environics March 31, 2006 HTML 41 22 21 10 5
Decima Research March 26, 2006 HTML 39 28 19 11 -
Ipsos-Reid March 23, 2006 HTML 38 28 19 9 5
Decima Research March 13, 2006 HTML 37 28 19 10 -
Decima Research February 27, 2006 HTML 35 28 21 10 -
Ipsos-Reid February 23, 2006 HTML 39 27 20 8 5
Strategic Counsel February 21, 2006 HTML 39 28 19 8 -
Decima Research February 13, 2006 PDF 35 25 24 8 -
SES Research February 9, 2006 PDF 33 34 18 9 7
Election 2006 January 23, 2006 HTML 36.3 30.2 17.5 10.5 4.5

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

Polling Firm Last Date of Polling Link Stephen Harper Stephane Dion Jack Layton Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May
SES Research November 08, 2007 PDF 37 13 17 6 5
Unimarketing October 18, 2007 HTML 40 10 16 1 4
Angus Reid Strategies October 17, 2007 PDF 30 10 - - -
Environics October 17, 2007 HTML 37 12 19 5 4
SES Research August 4, 2007 PDF 31 23 18 6 5
Angus Reid Strategies July 16, 2007 HTML 33 14 - - -
Angus Reid Strategies June 18, 2007 PDF 33 17 - - -
SES Research April 5, 2007 HTML 42 17 16 7 4
Ipsos Reid February 19, 2007 HTML 46 25 29 - -

Sometimes the information is further broken down, as in this Strategic Counsel poll conducted from February 15 - February 18, 2007:

Leader Clearest Vision for Canada Most Decisive Leader Most Charismatic
Stephen Harper 50 53 35
Stéphane Dion 22 19 20
Jack Layton 20 20 36
Gilles Duceppe 8 8 10

40th Canadian federal election (candidates)

By party:

  1. ^ http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90779/6313272.html
  2. ^ http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070626/Joe_Comuzzi_07626/20070626?hub=Canada
  3. ^ http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2007/03/13/doyle-retires.html
  4. ^ http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/cityplus/story.html?id=d2b9dd9e-6b5a-4e6f-a35f-faa3a1a32dda&k=50425
  5. ^ http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2007/01/08/fitzpatrick.html
  6. ^ http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071010/art_hanger_071010/20071010?hub=QPeriod
  7. ^ http://www.newstalk650.com/index.php?p=ntnews&action=view_story&id=7827
  8. ^ http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=fdbe2ed5-f770-4440-b329-2f362ef0a5f2
  9. ^ http://www.cbc.ca/canada/edmonton/story/2006/08/10/williams-retires.html
  10. ^ http://www.thesudburystar.com/webapp/sitepages/content.asp?contentID=276141&catname=Local+News
  11. ^ http://www.guelphtribune.ca/trib/news/news_611820.html
  12. ^ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071126.wjohn_godfrey/BNStory/National/home
  13. ^ http://www.nunatsiaq.com/archives/61222/news/nunavut/61222_01.html
  14. ^ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061213.wxlapierre13/BNStory/National/home
  15. ^ http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2007/04/03/matthews-retires.html
  16. ^ http://www.cbc.ca/canada/prince-edward-island/story/2007/03/07/mcguire-retires.html
  17. ^ http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2007/04/04/3915855-cp.html
  18. ^ http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070305/andy_scott_070305/20070305?hub=Politics
  19. ^ http://www.am920.ca/news.php?artID=18119
  20. ^ http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.0070411.wmagna0411/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business
  21. ^ http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=1213c00b-ec13-4948-98bb-880df8193292&k=89939
  22. ^ http://www.ndp.ca/page/5017
  23. ^ Prior to the dissolution of Parliament, figures for numbers of candidates nominated are supplied by the parties and are based on each party's internal nomination procedures. Formal nomination of candidates for seats in the House of Commons will not commence until after the writs are dropped.

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