Emerging markets

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The term emerging markets is commonly used to describe business and market activity in industrializing or emerging regions of the world. Originally brought into fashion in the 1980s by then World Bank economist Antoine van Agtmael,[1] the term is sometimes loosely used as a replacement for emerging economies, but really signifies a business phenomenon that is not fully described by or constrained to geography or economic strength; such countries are considered to be in a transitional phase between developing and developed status. Examples of emerging markets include China,[2] India, Mexico, Brazil, Chile much of Southeast Asia, countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, parts of Africa and Latin America. Emphasizing the fluid nature of the category, political scientist Ian Bremmer defines an emerging market as "a country where politics matters at least as much as economics to the markets."[3]

The research on emerging markets is diffused within management literature. While researchers including C. K. Prahalad, George Haley, Hernando De Soto, Usha Haley, Rajesh K Pillania and several professors from Harvard Business School and Yale School of Management have described activity in countries such as India and China, how a market emerges is little understood.

It appears that emerging markets lie at the intersection of non-traditional user behavior, the rise of new user groups and community adoption of products and services, and innovations in product technologies and platforms.

The term "rapidly developing economies" is now being used to denote emerging markets such as The United Arab Emirates, Chile and Malaysia that are undergoing rapid growth.

In recent years, new terms have emerged to describe the largest developing countries such as BRIC and BRIMC. These countries do not share any common agenda, but some experts believe that they are enjoying an increasing role in the world economy and on political platforms.

A large number of research works are in progress at leading universities and business schools to study and understand various aspects of Emerging Markets.

Contents

MSCI All Country World Index by Morgan Stanley Capital International 2006     Emerging markets     Developed markets
MSCI All Country World Index by Morgan Stanley Capital International 2006     Emerging markets     Developed markets

It is difficult to make an exact list of emerging (or developed) markets; the best guides tend to be investment information sources like ISI Emerging Markets and The Economist or market index makers (such as Morgan Stanley Capital International). These sources are well-informed, but the nature of investment information sources leads to two potential problems. One is an element of historicity; markets may be maintained in an index for continuity, even if the countries have since developed past the emerging market phase. Possible examples of this are South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Israel, and Czech Republic. A second is the simplification inherent in making an index; small countries, or countries with limited market liquidity are often not considered, with their larger neighbours considered an appropriate stand-in.

As of July 2006, the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index included:

The list tracked by The Economist is the same, except with Flag of Hong Kong Hong Kong, Flag of Singapore Singapore and Flag of Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia included (MSCI classifies the first two as Developed Markets) -- and Flag of Jordan Jordan omitted.

According to the latest findings from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) published on April 19, 2007 Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey are the emerging markets to watch. They have identified them as the next generation of emerging economies set to have significant impacts on the world economy, although Mexico was already identified as an important economy in studies such as BRIMC (Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and China), or as part of the G8+5. These countries may match or even overtake some of the commonly identified BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) which are expected to join the global economic powers, although these economies are unlikely to match India or China in strength.[4]

According to CEO of Grant Thornton, Indonesia and Pakistan, with their large populations, have the potential to grow their labour intensive exports and could capitalize on the process of low-cost production that mainland China has so successfully exploited.

  • Michael Pettis, The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse (2001) ISBN 0-19-514330-2

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