Next Australian federal election
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This article contains information about a forthcoming election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches. |
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| Election campaign, next < 2004 2007 next |
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| Government | Opposition | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | Liberal/National Coalition | |||
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| Kevin Rudd | Malcolm Turnbull | |||
| Leader since | 2006 | 2008 | ||
| Leader rating[1] | 54% | 24% | ||
| 2PP rating[2] | 55% | 45% | ||
| 2007 2PP result | 52.7% | 47.3% | ||
| Seats | 83 | 64 | ||
| Seats needed | 0 | 12 | ||
| Swing needed | 0.0% | 2.9% | ||
The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia and must be held on or before 16 April 2011. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the current Parliament. Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the upper house. The election will be conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.
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[edit] Date
The last federal election was held on 24 November 2007. The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:[3]
- Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[4]
- Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."
- Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ". [5]
- Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". [6]
- Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday". [7]
The first meeting of the House of Representatives and the 42nd Parliament occurred on 12 February 2008.[8][9] Therefore it expires on 11 February 2011, unless dissolved sooner. (Note that, of Australia's 41 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907-1910, continued for the full three years, all others having been dissolved earlier.[10]) The writs must therefore be issued by 21 February 2011 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 20 March 2011 (27 days after the writs). The last day that is no more than 31 days following the close of nominations, and is a Saturday, is 16 April 2011.
A Senate election must be held in time for state senators to take their places on 1 July 2011. It will probably be held in conjunction with the House of Representatives election. In this event, half (36) of the 72 state senators, and all 4 of the territory senators, will face election (territory senators begin their terms immediately). There are precedents for holding a separate Senate election, but the last time this occurred was 1970. If this were to occur, however, the only senators to face election would be the 36 state senators referred to above. The writs for a "half-Senate" election cannot be issued until one year before the end of the current term. The current term ends on 30 June 2011; one year before then is 30 June 2010; and thus the earliest possible such election would be in August 2010.
It is also possible that a double dissolution election could be called if legislation cannot proceed through the Senate after two attempts. A double dissolution may only occur on or before 11 August 2010:
- Section 57 of the Constitution says: "If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time".
The psephologist Malcolm Mackerras is "convinced" a double dissolution will occur.[11] Commentator David Barnett from the Canberra Times predicts the election will be called in two years' time rather than three, and will be based upon a comparison of the Rudd government's record with that of the Howard government.[12]
The next New South Wales state election is due on 26 March 2011[13] and this may make a 2011 federal election undesirable.
[edit] House of Representatives
- See also: Current pendulum
- See also: 2007 state-by-state lower house results and maps
The Labor Party, currently led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and the Liberal Party, currently led by Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, are the two main parties in Australia. The Liberal Party is usually in a coalition with the smaller National Party, currently led by Warren Truss. In the 150-member Australian House of Representatives, Labor won government with 83 seats, with the coalition on 65 seats (55 Liberal and 10 National), with two seats held by independents. The Australian Greens won 8 per cent of the 2007 vote, and the Family First Party won 2 per cent, but neither party won any seats in the lower house.
The coalition total was reduced to 64 seats, when Rob Oakeshott, former state Nationals turned independent MP, won the seat of Lyne at the September 2008 Lyne by-election, resulting from the resignation of former Howard minister and Nationals leader Mark Vaile. The April 2008 Gippsland by-election, resulting from the resignation of the former Howard minister and Nationals MP Peter McGauran, saw the Nationals' Darren Chester retain the seat with a 6 per cent margin increase, however Liberal preferences were received, after no candidate was fielded at the 2007 election as per the coalition agreement. The Liberals suffered a swing in the September 2008 Mayo by-election resulting from the resignation of former Howard minister and Liberal leader Alexander Downer, and came within a couple of percent of losing the seat to the Greens candidate. Labor chose not to contest Mayo and Lyne.
The proposed redistribution for Western Australia has been released, which would make Liberal-held Swan notionally Labor, and vastly change Kalgoorlie and O'Connor, with the former being safer for the Liberals, and the latter becoming less safe for the Liberals. The redistribution would also damage the WA Nationals' chances of a House of Representatives seat.[14][15][16] Tasmania is also being redistributed, and while there are some changes to the look of boundaries, little will change in terms of seat margins.[17][18]
[edit] Senate
- See also: 2007 state-by-state upper house results
In the 76-member Australian Senate, from July 2008, the Labor and Liberal Parties hold 32 seats each. The balance of power rests with the crossbench, consisting of:
- 5 National Party (including one CLP)
- 5 Australian Greens
- 1 Family First, Steve Fielding
- 1 independent, Nick Xenophon
For a majority, Labor requires an additional seven votes from non-Labor Senators in order to pass legislation. If the Liberal Party chooses to vote with the Labor Party on legislation, support from the crossbench will not be required.
Independent Nick Xenophon, although reported as left-of-centre,[19] has indicated his plans to work closely with Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce, who was known for being a highly independent member of his party during the Howard coalition government, having crossed the floor over 20 times. In September 2008, Barnaby Joyce replaced CLP Senator and Nationals deputy leader Nigel Scullion as leader of the Nationals in the Senate, with the four Nationals and one CLP moving to the crossbench. Joyce stated that his party would no longer necessarily vote with their Liberal counterparts in the upper house, which opens up another possible avenue for the government to get legislation through.[20][21][22][23]
[edit] State Senators facing re-election
| NSW | Vic | Qld | WA | SA | Tas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Heffernan (Lib) Steve Hutchins (ALP) Concetta F.-Wells (Lib) John Faulkner (ALP) Fiona Nash (Nat) Michael Forshaw (ALP) |
Michael Ronaldson (Lib) Kim Carr (ALP) Julian McGauran (Lib) Stephen Conroy (ALP) Judith Troeth (Lib) Steve Fielding (FFP) |
Brett Mason (Lib) Jan McLucas (ALP) George Brandis (Lib) Joe Ludwig (ALP) Barnaby Joyce (Nat) Russell Trood (Lib) |
Chris Ellison (Lib) Chris Evans (ALP) Mathias Cormann (Lib) Glenn Sterle (ALP) Judith Adams (Lib) Rachel Siewert (Grn) |
Nick Minchin (Lib) Anne McEwen (ALP) Mary Jo Fisher (Lib) Annette Hurley (ALP) Alan Ferguson (Lib) Dana Wortley (ALP) |
Eric Abetz (Lib) Kerry O'Brien (ALP) Guy Barnett (Lib) Helen Polley (ALP) Stephen Parry (Lib) Christine Milne (Grn) |
[edit] Polling
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes consist of around 1100-1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 per cent.
| Date | Labor Rudd |
Liberal Turnbull |
|---|---|---|
| 19-21 Sep 2008 | 54% | 24% |
| 5-7 Sep 2008 | 62% | 16%2 |
| 22-24 Aug 2008 | 65% | 14%2 |
| 8-10 Aug 2008 | 68% | 12%2 |
| 25-27 Jul 2008 | 66% | 14%2 |
| 11-13 Jul 2008 | 65% | 14%2 |
| 27-29 Jun 2008 | 64% | 15%2 |
| 13-15 Jun 2008 | 68% | 13%2 |
| 30 May-1 Jun 2008 | 66% | 17%2 |
| 16-18 May 2008 | 70% | 12%2 |
| 2-4 May 2008 | 72% | 9%2 |
| 18-20 Apr 2008 | 71% | 10%2 |
| 4-6 Apr 2008 | 73% | 9%2 |
| 14-16 Mar 2008 | 70% | 10%2 |
| 29 Feb-2 Mar 2008 | 73% | 7%2 |
| 15-17 Feb 2008 | 70% | 9%2 |
| 18-20 Jan 2008 | 68% | 11%2 |
| 30 Nov-2 Dec 2007 | 61% | 14%2 |
| 20-22 Nov 2007 | 47% | 44%1 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1Howard 2Nelson |
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| Political parties | Two party preferred | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Co. | ||||
| 19-21 Sep 2008 | 42% | 34% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 5-7 Sep 2008 | 44% | 34% | 3% | 11% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 22-24 Aug 2008 | 45% | 34% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 8-10 Aug 2008 | 47% | 33% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 25-27 Jul 2008 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 11-13 Jul 2008 | 43% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 27-29 Jun 2008 | 44% | 34% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 13-15 Jun 2008 | 46% | 29% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 30 May-1 Jun 2008 | 46% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 16-18 May 2008 | 47% | 34% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 2-4 May 2008 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 18-20 Apr 2008 | 51% | 30% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 61% | 39% | |||
| 4-6 Apr 2008 | 48% | 32% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 14-16 Mar 2008 | 47% | 31% | 4% | 11% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 29 Feb-2 Mar 2008 | 51% | 28% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 63% | 37% | |||
| 15-17 Feb 2008 | 46% | 33% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 18-20 Jan 2008 | 46% | 32% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 2007 Election | 43.4% | 36.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 52.7% | 47.3% | |||
| 20-22 Nov 2007 | 44% | 39% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. |
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[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ Newspoll/The Australian: Better Prime Minister, 19-21 Sep 2008
- ^ Newspoll/The Australian: Two Party Preferred, 19-21 Sep 2008
- ^ Parliamentary Library - Timetable for the next Australian elections
- ^ Australian Constitution - Section 28 - Duration of House of Representatives (accessed 2007-11-30)
- ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156
- ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157
- ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158
- ^ Parliamentary Sittings 2008
- ^ http://www.ag.gov.au/portal/govgazonline.nsf/FEDD3FD579976BF5CA2573DA008094F3/$file/S%2020.pdf Governor-General's Proclamation, 25 January 2008
- ^ House of Representatives Practice; Appendix 15 - Chronology of Parliaments
- ^ Best bets to dent dominant majority: The Australian 8/12/2007
- ^ A new policy to win next election: The Canberra Times 10/1/2008
- ^ Timetable for the next Australian Elections, retrieved 20 December 2007. NSW has fixed four-year parliamentary terms and, barring exceptional circumstances, the election must be on the fourth Saturday of March 2011.
- ^ WA redistributed: Poll Bludger 1/8/2008
- ^ New Federal Boundaries for Western Australia: Antony Green ABC 1/8/2008
- ^ Proposed Redistribution (including maps) of Western Australia 2007-08: AEC
- ^ Tasmania redistributed - The Poll Bludger 22/08/2008
- ^ Federal Redistribution in Tasmania: Antony Green ABC 13/08/2008
- ^ Recognise these men? They may hold balance of power: The Age 18/10/2007
- ^ Independently inclined: The Age 31/5/2008
- ^ Nationals won't toe Libs' line: Joyce - SMH 18/9/2008
- ^ Leader Barnaby Joyce still a maverick: The Australian 18/9/2008
- ^ Barnaby elected Nationals Senate leader: ABC AM 18/9/2008
- ^ Dates of Expiry of Senators' Terms of Service - Australian Senate (accessed 2007-12-01)
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