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Republic of China

This article is part of the series: Politics of the Republic of China

History: Civil War - 3 Principles - 5 Races Constitution - National Assembly Presidential Office: President: Chen Shui-bian Vice President: Annette Lu Government: Premier: Chang Chun-hsiung Vice Premier: Chiou I-jen Branches: Executive Yuan Legislative Yuan Judicial Yuan Control Yuan Examination Yuan Parties: Pan-Blue Coalition: KMT - PFP Pan-Green Coalition: DPP - TSU Elections: Presidential 1996 - 2000 - 2004 - 2008 Legislative 1948 - 1969 - 1972 - 1975 - 1980 1983 - 1986 - 1989 - 1991 - 1992 1995 - 1996 - 1998 - 2001 - 2004 2005 - 2008 Status: Political - Legal - Republic Independence - Reunification Four-stage theory - Localization Foreign Relations: UN - Cross-Strait - Japan - US Chinese Taipei - 1 China - 2 systems Other issues: Political divisions Human rights

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The Election for the 12th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China (traditional Chinese: 第十二任總統副總統選舉) will be held Saturday, 22 March 2008. [1]

This is the fourth direct election for the President of the Republic of China. The two major candidates are Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Frank Hsieh and Kuomintang (KMT) nominee Ma Ying-jeou; there are no other official candidates nominated by other parties thus far. The KMT ticket was officially formed as of June 23, 2007, with Ma announcing his choice for running mate to be former premier Vincent Siew. The DPP ticket was announced in August, 2007, with Frank Hsieh selecting former Premier Su Tseng-chang.

Contents 1 Franchise 2 Presidential nominees 2.1 Pan-Green Coalition 2.2 Pan-Blue Coalition 2.3 Issues with internal dissensions within the two camps 3 Issues 4 Opinion polling 5 References

The election will be by direct popular vote; a simple plurality is required to win. According to the Constitution of the Republic of China, all citizens of the Republic of China of at least 20 years of age and with household registration in the "Free Area of the Republic of China" (Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.) will be eligible to vote. There is, however, ongoing discussion on lowering the voting age to 18 years and permitting absentee ballots for Republic of China citizens of the Free Area who reside outside the Free Area (i.e. in mainland China or overseas).^[1] Under current law, all voters must travel to their registered precincts to vote.

As this is incumbent President Chen Shui-bian's second term, he is barred from running due to term limits. While the election is still more than five months away, the major parties are already going through their candidate nomination and ticket-formation processes. In addition to these, independents Ellen Huang (黃越綏; former National Policy Advisor) and Ko Tsi-hai (柯賜海) also announced their hope to run in the election.

Candidates are to register with their respective parties between March 5-9 for a primary election. Selection of candidates for President in the Republic of China, unlike most other nations, are weighed. The actual primary election results account for 30% of the final outcome while public opinion polls account for the other 70%. Final tallies are announced May 30, 2007. [2]

For the Pan-Green Coalition, the Democratic Progressive Party announced that it will announce candidates sometime in February or March. Former premier and Mayor of Kaohsiung Frank Hsieh subsequently announced his bid for the presidency on February 16. The DPP correctly expected the eventual nominee to be one of the "Four Heavenly Kings" (an expression more closely translated into English as the "Four Heavyweights") dubbed by the Taiwanese media, which consist of Hsieh, Su, Lu, and Yu. Three of the heavyweights (Hsieh, Su, and Yu) had held highly visible positions in the Chen administration, rotating between DPP chairman and premier of the Republic of China and in Lu's case she was vice-president throughout the whole administration. On May 6, 2007, former premier Frank Hsieh emerged as the winner of the DPP primaries, winning 17 of 24 cities and counties with 62,849 votes, about 44% of the votes cast. Despite the fact that the primary results only account for 30% of the final outcome in determining the nominee, fellow DPP candidates Su, who got 46,994 votes; Yu, with 22,211 votes; and Lu with 8,666 votes, have all decided to take steps to unite behind Hsieh.^[2] The primaries took place in all 24 cities and counties in Taiwan. There were 254,963 eligible voters, with voter turnout at 56.06%. [3]

• Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)^[3]
  • Frank Hsieh, former mayor of Kaohsiung City, former premier of the Republic of China, former DPP chairman, and most recently the 2006 candidate for Taipei mayor in which he lost; formally declared his candidacy on February 16, 2007; was ahead in most media polls for the DPP primaries [4]. Hsieh won the primary election on May 6, 2007, winning 17 of 24 cities and counties with 62,849 votes. Hsieh selected Su Tseng-chang as his vice-presidential running-mate in August, 2007.
• Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)
  • There is no word as of yet as to whether or not the Taiwan Solidarity Union will field its own candidate for the Presidency. However, KMT nominee Ma Ying-Jeou met with TSU chairman Shu Chin-Chiang on September 19, with Mr. Shu referring to Ma as "our President-to-be." Shu also indicated that former President Lee did not necessarily support the DPP's Hsieh-Su ticket, further fueling speculation that the TSU may not endorse the DPP ticket outright.[5] Several TSU legislators stated that they will support DPP candidate Frank Hsieh.^[4]

For the Pan-Blue Coalition:

• Kuomintang (KMT)
  • Ma Ying-jeou, former KMT chairman and former Taipei Mayor, officially announced his candidacy on February 13, 2007; formally named the KMT's candidate on May 2, 2007, final approval of the nomination will be passed by the KMT congress in June.^[5] On June 23, 2007, Ma officially announced former premier and former vice-presidential candidate (in 2000) Vincent Siew as his running mate [6]^[6]. After Wang's declination of Ma's offer, several other names, other than Siew, were considered including Wu Tun-yi (吳敦義), incumbent KMT general secretary; Jason Lin, CEO of Uni-President Group; and Tsai Ing-wen, a DPP member and former vice-premier. [7] [8]

• People First Party (PFP)
  • The People First Party has publicly announced that they would support Ma Ying-jeou as presidential candidate, and will not field its own candidate for election.

• New Party
  • The New Party will support the nominee of the Kuomintang, Ma Ying-Jeou, and will not field its own candidate for election.

The ability of the Pan-Blue Coalition to name a unified ticket is uncertain. In the 2000 presidential election, the KMT nominated Lien Chan and James Soong (who was expelled from the KMT and would form the PFP after the election), ran as an independent on a separate ticket. Together they garnered 59.9% of the vote, but lost to the DPP's Chen Shui-bian who won 39.3% of the vote. This split in the electorate was widely seen to have led to Chen's victory, and in the 2004 presidential election, Lien and Soong ran on a combined ticket (with Lien for president and Soong for vice president). Though widely expected to win the election on the basis of their combined vote totals in 2000, they still lost by 0.22% of the vote.

Following the Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory over Wang Jin-pyng in the 2005 KMT chairmanship election and the KMT's apparent victory over the DPP in the 2005 3-in-1 local elections -- though the DPP made large gains at the local level, the KMT took most of the key county chief positions -- Ma is heavily favored for the Pan-Blue nomination. With the PFP's dismal showing in the 2004 legislative election and the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, there is increasing pressure for the PFP to merge with the KMT. The PFP announced on December 12 that it would merge into the KMT in two phases, the first being completed by the end of January 2006. However, the talks regarding mergers were then suspended; since then, the parties have resumed merger talks.

Former KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou has began his campaign before his announcement for candidacy, taking trips Europe and Japan in 2006, nominally to obtain business deals for Taipei, but covered widely by the media for his foreign policy remarks. Significantly, Ma Ying-jeou became the first head of a pan-Blue coalition party to state that declaring de jure Taiwanese independence was a legitimate choice of the Taiwanese people, though he qualified it saying that this was not a position of the KMT, after receiving much criticism from pan-Blue politicians. He also stated that Taiwan should form a common market with China and establish direct transportation links. Ma has also expressed an interest to relocate to southern Taiwan—the traditional pan-Green stronghold—after his term as Taipei mayor ends in 2006, though this speculation has yet to become true. Ma officially announced his entry into the 2008 race on February 13, 2007 and was formally nominated as the KMT candidate in May 2007. Former vice chairman Wang Jin-pyng, the president of the Legislative Yuan, did not oppose Ma's campaign for the KMT nomination but has not ruled out an independent run if his advisers feel he would garner considerable support.

Ma has visited Wang numerous times and has formally asked Wang to be his running mate. Wang has so far refused to give an answer but promises his decision will come before June 24, 2007. Several news outlets have reported that Ma and Wang's cooperation could stem further than the vice-presidential candidate, but that Wang may swing a cooperation with Ma's promise to appoint him premier, if elected. Former Premier and former vice-presidential candidate Vincent Siew has also been mentioned as a possible running mate for Ma should Wang opt not to accept the vice presidential role. [9]

Meanwhile, the Pan-Green Coalition's unity, at one point appeared in question as the DPP primary campaign became an unexpected nasty campaign between the two frontrunners, former premier Frank Hsieh and then-premier Su Tseng-chang. However, after Hsieh's primary victory among DPP members, Su, as well as the two other candidates, chairman Yu Shyi-kun and vice-president Annette Lu, have suspended their campaigns and announced that they would support Hsieh, causing DPP to cancel the second stage primary, based on opinion polls. The TSU has not yet announced whether it would support Hsieh.

Su Tseng-chang resigned his post as Premier on May 12. He was replaced by DPP loyalist Chang Chun-hsiung, who will man the position a second time. This marks the sixth premier named by Chen Shui-bian in his seven years as President of the Republic of China. There is also speculation that Su's resignation will make chances of a Hsieh-Su ticket formation greater, while some speculate Chen's accepting of Su's resignation as strategy to allow Su not to steal Hsieh's limelight ahead of the elections. [10]

As is common with Taiwanese elections, a major issue of the campaign will likely be over the future of the political status of Taiwan and maintaining good cross-straits relations. The DPP favors eventual Taiwan independence; the KMT on the other hand, is willing to accept the PRC's one-China principle and believes that Taiwan will eventually unify with China. The KMT's main objective is to establish a strong relationship with China under unification or as an independent nation. Unlike the DPP, it is much more flexible in terms of diplomatic rhetoric. It is widely recognized that no candidate could win without supporting the status quo of de facto independence (as they did in 2004) in order to attract centrist voters. Also in 2004, both mainstream candidates recognized eventual unification as a possible option as a means to attract the center. The strategy of both sides, as was the case in 2004, will be to persuade voters that it can best maintain the status quo and protect Taiwan from an invasion by the People's Republic of China.

While the smaller, more radical TSU favors immediate moves to establish a Taiwanese state, the much more mainstream DPP under Chen Shui-bian has so far taken a more moderate position regarding independence. At the same time the Chen administration has moved to promote a separate Taiwanese identity and give official recognition to Taiwan's de facto independence from the mainland such as by equating Taiwan with the Republic of China. The front-runners for the DPP nomination are all considered moderates like Chen Shui-bian.

The KMT party line is against one country, two systems, but is supportive of dialogue with the Communist Party of China under the "1992 Consensus." The DPP, in contrast, opposes recognizing One China (a prerequisite set by the PRC for negotiations), and no talks have occurred under the Chen administration. The KMT also supports immediately opening up the three links with mainland China, which the DPP has been reluctant to implement, and this reluctant willingness is further impeded by the PRC's refusal to negotiate unless the government accepts the one-China principle and the so-called 1992 consensus.

Another issue to be discussed in the years before the election is constitutional reform. President Chen Shui-bian had pledged in his second inaugural address to draft a new constitution by 2006 to take effect upon the inauguration of the 12th-term president in 2008. This is opposed by the Pan-Blue Coalition, which seeks only changes through amendments to the existing document. A constitutional reform package was passed in 2005 with cross-party support, while the "Constitutional Reform Committee" proposed by President Chen to draft the new Constitution has never been formed. It appears, that with Pan-Blue controlling the Legislative Yuan until at least February 2008 (following the 2007 legislative election) and few actions being taken by the president for drafting a new Constitution, there will be no new Constitution for 2008.

The investigations into alleged misuse of funds by members of both the KMT and DPP is another hot topic: Ma Ying-Jeou was indicted on charges of misusing his Mayoral funds, and the First Lady has been indicted for embezzling from a national account (President Chen is immune from any charges as the law gives a sitting president immunity). DPP candidate Frank Hsieh is under investigation for similar charges as Ma in irregularity and misuse of funds while he served as mayor of Kaohsiung. However, different from Ma, Frank Hsieh has stated that if he is found guilty in his Mayoral funds case, he will not continue running as a candidate for president. Ma has maintained his innocence and has stated that he will not give up his run for presidency even if found guilty. Ma, on August 12, 2007, was found not guilty on his special funds case, clearing his name of corruption charges. [11]

A third issue may be the recent restorations or additions of "Taiwan" to names in state-controlled and state-owned firms, such as replacing Chunghwa Post with Taiwan Post, the name it bore into the ROC period of rule on Taiwan; and Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport to Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, its originally planned name. The naming controversy of the Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Hall and the legality of the Central Government's name-change order is another topic of heated debate. Conservative observers tend to view the name changes as signs of reactionary desinicization carried out by President Chen to appease his base supporters, while others view the name changing as signs of Taiwan localization movement carving an identity for Taiwan's name. The issue is, like most others, split strongly between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green supporters.

Since selecting Vincent Siew as his running mate, Ma Ying-jeou has announced that the chief issue of this election would be the recovery of Taiwanese economy. He has said that the independence-reunification debate is a "fake issue" with no bearing on the general welfare of the Taiwanese people. He also labeled Siew as the would-be "chief architect" to revive the economy, because of Siew's solid economic background.

Polling Firm	Date	Source	Ma-Siew (KMT)	Hsieh-Su (DPP)
United Daily News	29 April 2007	[12]	52	21
United Daily News	6 May 2007	[13]	43	28
China Times	May 2007	[14]	33	24
United Daily News	4 June 2007	[15]	58	17
United Daily News	24 June 2007 After announcement of the Ma-Siew ticket's formation	[16]	50	23
China Times	24 June 2007	[17]	40	20
Kuomintang	9 August 2007	[18]	58.2	41.8
United Daily News	13 August 2007 After announcement of the Hsieh-Su ticket's formation	[19]	40	27
United Daily News	14 August 2007 After Ma is cleared of corruption charges	[20]	52	22
United Daily News	23 September 2007 After Hsieh and Su not indicted in their discretionary funds cases	[21]	51	27
United Daily News	24 October 2007	[22]	50	25
Global Views (遠見雜誌)	29 October 2007	[23]	59.4	40.6
Global Views (遠見雜誌)	26 November 2007	[24]	58.6	41.4

• In terms of political orientation, United Daily News and China Times are considered Pan-Blue and pro-unification.^[7][8]

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